Entrevista para Punto Biz

pbiz.jpgMe preguntaron que pensaba de la nueva Ley de Inversiones de Santa Fe, que anunció el Gobernador hoy. Esto es lo que contesté…

1- La ley me parece una herramienta que le da un grado de discrecionalidad muy importante al Poder Ejecutivo provincial. Esto es, aunque el Parlamento fija los cupos presupuestarios a aplicar (para constituir los fondos de inversión o subsidiar las tasas de los créditos), el ejecutivo provincial tiene discrecionalidad casi absoluta para asignar esos fondos sin tener que rendir cuentas sobre la aplicación sectorial o geográfica de los fondos. Esto, en mi opinión, aunque le da celeridad a los procesos de apoyo a empresas puede no ser bueno porque quita cualquier posibilidad de contralor y tampoco da reglas para asignar los fondos. No hay ninguna regla, una vez que se sabe cuanto se puede gastar se puede apoyar a casi cualquier empresa, dado que la ley es muy general en cuanto a las empresas que se busca promocionar.

En mi opinión, hay dos extremos en la gestión de la producción que hay que evitar. El primero es que todo lo que tenga que hacer el ejecutivo en materia de apoyo a empresas tenga que ser aprobado por la legislatura. Esto le quita ejecutividad y lentifica mucho la acción. El otro extremo es darle discrecionalidad total al ejecutivo, como en este caso.

En el medio se podría haber instrumentado una ley que contenga reglas o criterios por los cuales la asignación de los fondos a los beneficiarios sea lo más automática posible. Por ejemplo, diciendo que se otorgarán beneficios a empresas de tales o cuáles sectores o a empresas que generen tantos puestos de trabajo por capital invertido o a empresas que inviertan más de cierto porcentaje de sus ingresos en I+D, o lo que sea. Pero alguna regla habría que haber incluido.

Mientras más discrecionalidad existe, la experiencia internacional muestra que menos transparencia hay en la aplicación de los regímenes. Si yo puedo decir “le doy a Pedro, pero no a Juan” sin dar mayores explicaciones, se genera un incentivo muy fuerte para que se den procesos de corrupción. Esto es independiente del color partidario o el tipo de gobierno del que se trate. Es casi una “regla de oro” de la administración pública. Por supuesto que se puede reservar el gobierno cierta flexibilidad, algún margen de maniobra necesario, pero TANTA flexibilidad como hay en esta ley puede llegar a ser muy malo, por los motivos que menciono.

Y esto no es sólo objetable desde el punto de vista del funcionamiento institucional y la necesaria transparencia, lo es desde el punto de vista de la eficiencia económica del instrumento. En otras palabras: ¿CUAL ES LA ESTRATEGIA? ¿QUE COSAS SE QUIERE PROMOCIONAR? ¿CUALES SON LOS CRITERIOS? En la ley sólo figura que es para empresas micro, pequeñas y medianas, pero eso es como decir “para el 95% de las industrias provinciales”, que son todas precisamente, medianas y pequeñas. Si no hay algún foco, alguna estrategia, el impacto de los recursos es menor, la eficiencia decrece. Creo que hubiera sido una buena oportunidad ésta para establecer, POR LEY, una estrategia al menos general, de desarrollo industrial. Algo que podría transformarse en una política de  estado de mediano plazo y mantenerse a salvo de los cambios de partidos y administraciones. Lo contrario (la ley presente) podría alentar que cada administración intente una o más estrategias, de corto plazo, que en algunos casos podrían ser hasta contradictorias y, en última instancia, menos eficientes.

2- Es valorable que se haya intentado incluir el desarrollo de fondos de capital de riesgo dentro de los instrumentos de promoción. Lamentablemente la ley dice que el fondo de capital de riesgo es para “comprar títulos de deuda”. Que pueden, o no, ser convertidos luego en acciones. El problema es que el capital de riesgo POR DEFINICION es inversión en equity, en capital, NO DEUDA. Precisamente, las ventajas que tiene con respecto al crédito bancario son que no carga sobre las espaldas del emprendedor el costo de endeudar la compañía, otorgando un colateral o garantía. POR ESO SE LLAMA “DE RIESGO”. Porque no hay deuda y por lo tanto no hay garantía. La deuda puede ser un complemento, en algunos casos, de la estructura principal de financiamiento, que es, repito, INVERSION DE CAPITAL. De manera que la ley habla de un fondo de capital de riesgo, que en realidad no es tal.

3- Hay un artículo que prevee que se haga una estimación de costo fiscal ex post, es decir CUANTO COSTO LO QUE PROMOCIONAMOS EL AÑO PASADO. En otras palabras, SE EVALUA EL COSTO DESPUES DE QUE SE PAGO. Los expertos dicen que lo sano desde el punto de vista económico y presupuestario es estimar el costo presupuestario ANTES de otorgar el beneficio. ¿Cómo voy a incurrir en un gasto que no sé cuánto va a ser en total? Más aún, la estimación del costo fiscal es difícil porque la ley incluye exenciones impositivas que, precisamente, son difíciles de estimar en costo. Por eso los economistas suelen preferir que haya un subsidio explícito en el presupuesto que diga a quién va y por cuanto tiempo, antes que una exención impositiva. Las partidas para la constitución de los fondos que prevee la ley se van a hacer con este criterio, pero el costo de las exenciones (que ya estaban en la ley anterior) no se pueden estimar. Igualmente, yo no sé si usaría, en las condiciones actuales, las exenciones impositivas para atraer empresas. Creo que en el contexto actual es más valioso para una empresa saber que va a tener, por ejemplo, infraestructura de primer nivel y velocidad y simplicidad en los trámites, estabilidad y seguridad jurídica, que exenciones. Sí estoy de acuerdo en las exenciones generales, para todo un sector por ejemplo, (i.e. call centers, software). Pero no de manera discrecional, decir “este proyecto no paga impuestos por diez años”, no estoy seguro que ese sea el mejor modo de atraer inversiones. En mi opinión, al menos.

4- Otro artículo prevee aplicar subsidios o promociones para radicaciones en provincias vecinas pero, al menos a mi, no me queda en claro que la reciprocidad que se pide sea inmediata o a futuro. El artículo no me queda claro, no sé a que apunta y no termino de entender como sería favorable a los intereses provinciales. Quizás requiera mayor explicación.

5- Por último, yo no incluiría el apoyo a las empresas sociales en la ley de inversiones. Creo que tiene que haber un apoyo a estas empresas. Es legítimo y valioso. Pero, por su propia naturaleza, yo lo incluiría en otro lugar. Son experiencias que tienen un componente económico pero también un componente social. Son empresas muy especiales cuyos instrumentos de apoyo quizás merezcan ser incluidos en otras leyes o ámbitos de lo público.

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